An alternative 2016 election analysis…

Posted: May 8, 2016 in Politics

Cameron defends Kelly in school rowLabour has won Mayor of London… and of Bristol. The UKIP surge and Lib Dem resurgence, combined with the 2012 performance being a high water mark for Labour, meant that nobody other than the Lib Dems and UKIP was going to gain seats, in raw numbers, from these elections.

Indeed, if this was a bad night for Corbyn due to the loss of a few seats, it was a monumental catastrophe for the Tories who lost so many more… -46 for the Tories, to Labour’s -23… set against gains of +44 for the Lib Dems and +26 for UKIP.

Labour held it’s own, even while under fire from a concerted smear campaign from the right. Labour held it’s own in spite of a certain small chorus within it’s ranks trying to sabotage its efforts in the attempt to bring down Corbyn. It increased its majority in a number of bellwether constituencies. Labour has 1291 councillors to the Tories 828 …

… Labour has won 47.8% of council seats (prior to the declaration of one council), beating the “fantastic success” of Cameron’s failure to break through into the 40% mark in his first comparable contest in 2006, and even a percentage point more than Blair’s first locals as leader back in 1995 where just 46% of seats were won.

As for Scotland… well, Labour broke The Oath before Corbyn was even a possible leader of the party… and while that breach of trust could be expected from the Tories, from Labour it was unforgivable… as such, the SNP is now seen as the party of the left, and given their stance on the desirability of Scottish Independence, the Conservatives, being seen as a party in support of Union, are the ones with the claim to SNP opposition… no surprises there then. It’ll take a hell of a long time and a number of serious missteps from the SNP before Labour is trusted in Scotland again. It can’t just force itself on the people of Scotland, and grovelling certainly isn’t going to work either.

However, the flipside of this, is that in spite of being unable to win a massive number of seats in Scotland that Blair’s party had available, Labour has still managed to win 47% of seats, meaning that it’s made massive inroads in England.

So… a disaster for Corbyn? No… far from it. Contrary to the spinning of the right-wing media, this was quite clearly an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.
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